Unpredictable Export Growth During Pandemic

KARACHI:
The numbers on the trade pattern published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for July 2020 indicate a significant reversal of the trend in prior months.

Exports surpassed $2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 25.1% and year-on-year growth of 6.1%. On the other hand, imports decreased slightly, month-on-month and year-on-year. The balance of trade continued its downward trend, receding by 19.9% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year.

Pakistan has recovered from the earlier plunge in exports experienced in late March 2020. Exports in February 2020 were $2.1 billion, the highest level reported for FY20. Interestingly, imports did increase 30% in June 2020 to $3.7 billion over the value reported in May 2020. They maintained this level in July 2020.

On the other hand, India’s exports recovered sharply in May 2020 from the sharp fall in April but since then the trajectory has been flatter.

Data shows India’s exports stood at $19.1 billion in May 2020, up from $10.4 billion in April. Exports in July 2020 were $23.6 billion. Exports had peaked at $27.7 billion in February 2020.

Imports into India were calculated at $41.1 billion in January 2020, which decreased to $17.1 billion in April 2020 and recovered to $28.5 billion in July 2020.

Similarly, according to data extracted from Bangladesh’s Export Promotion Bureau, a decline of 16.9% was reported in its total exports from July 2019 to June 2020 over the same period of previous year. Total exports met only 74% of the target. Exports of readymade garments were a major casualty.